What the stats say

16/07/2020

GHI reviews the latest Covid-19 data released by the World Health Organization, governments and aviation analysts over the past week. Which countries have seen a rapid rise in cases? Are there areas where the pandemic is starting to plateau and what does that tell us?

South Africa becomes the first African nation to arrive in the top 10 of countries worst hit by coronavirus this week. Others may not be far behind if a trend that has seen a 24% increase in Covid-19 cases across Africa in a week continues. The pandemic was “gaining full momentum” across the continent according to John Nkengasong, head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

In South Africa, the health minister urged the population to change their behaviour and adopt measures to curb the spread of the virus.  The country faces a “storm” in the coming weeks, he added.

That storm has already struck in India where the nation has reported in excess of 20,000 fresh cases a day for the past week and is now set to become only the third country to pass one million confirmed occurrences. Bangalore, a hotspot for the outbreak, has entered lockdown.

In the US, the country’s leading public health expert, Anthony Fauci has warned Covid-19 could be worse than “the mother of all pandemics”- the 1919 Spanish flu, which killed 50 million. Fauci criticised young people in the States for continuing to transmit the disease by freely socialising. The US reported a record 66,786 new cases on 10 July.

Spain departs the top 10 countries by confirmed coronavirus cases this week. The UK is now the only European country within the top 10 in marked contrast to just a few months ago when Germany, Italy, France and Spain all featured.

When will we see the vaccine? Nine candidates are currently in phase II trails and three have entered phase III large -scale efficacy testing. Watch this space.

Top 10 countries by confirmed cases of Covid-19
  1. US: 3,431,574 (1)
  2. Brazil: 1,926,824 (2)
  3. India: 939,181 (3)
  4. Russia: 738,787 (4)
  5. Peru: 333,867 (5)
  6. Chile: 319,413 (6)
  7. Mexico: 311,486 (8)
  8. South Africa: 298,292 (New Entry)
  9. UK: 292,931 (7)
  10. Iran: 262,173(10)
Top 10 data source